(Photo of Darien Moore and the bench of Catholic Central from earlier in the season)
Bracket graphics are from Section2atlethics.org.
Every tournament takes into account each team’s current ranking and their current path to the title. Teams are broken down into 4 different categories based on their overall chance to win it all according to the rankings. They are as followed:
Each team is automatically classified into four categories based on their pre-tournament odds of winning their respective bracket. Here’s the key:
>= 25% chance to win= Favorite
>= 10% & < 25% chance to win= Contender
>= 5% & < 10% chance to win= Dark Horse
< 5% chance to win= Long Shot
Class AAA
Sectional brackets. Predictions for each tournament generated by the season long computer rankings and thoughts on each classification.
Full Bracket Projections
| Class AAA Boys |
Winning |
Winning |
Winning |
Computer |
| |
QT. Final |
Semi |
Champ |
Projection |
| |
|
|
|
|
| Colonie |
84.00% |
56.31% |
38.58% |
Favorite |
| Shaker |
64.92% |
32.59% |
13.54% |
Contender |
| Saratoga |
50.02% |
27.54% |
11.40% |
Contender |
| Green Tech |
49.98% |
27.51% |
11.38% |
Contender |
| CBA |
50.00% |
19.53% |
10.11% |
Contender |
| Shen |
50.00% |
19.52% |
10.11% |
Contender |
| Schenectady |
35.08% |
12.37% |
3.47% |
Long Shot |
| Albany |
16.00% |
4.64% |
1.42% |
Long Shot |
A few questions based on the numbers:
Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?
Yes. Colonie is 20-0 and has answered every test so far. They don't panic when they are trailing, are well coached and are deep. Cam Trimarchi and Julius Reed lead the Garnet Raiders in scoring.
Is there a team seeded #4 or below that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?
Shenendehowa and CBA are seeded #4 and #5 respectively and could give Colonie trouble if they meet in the semi-finals. CBA held a fourth quarter lead vs Colonie in a matchup earlier in the season.
Additional thoughts:
Green Tech is looking for their third straight sectional title. When they are playing at full potential, they are long, quick in transition and get after you on defense. Giving them every opportunity to make run. However, they've also had two battles with Shen and a loss at Shaker. Saratoga is playing their best basketball of the season and can give Green Tech some problems in their quarter final tilt.
Click team name for season results. Players to watch in this classification are listed as top 150 scorers on the timesunion.com website.
| Colonie |
AAA |
Cam Trimarchi,Julius Reed, |
| Green Tech |
AAA |
Haisi Mayben,Indavier Barnes,U'Mier Graham, |
| Shaker |
AAA |
Bless Demand,Trey Mariano,Tye Mariano, |
| CBA |
AAA |
Jayden Osinski,JT Vogel,Matt Sgambati, |
| Saratoga |
AAA |
Andrew Stallmer,Antone Robbens,Ryan Farr, |
| Shen |
AAA |
Bega Ibrahim,Grady Ceccucci, |
| Schenectady |
AAA |
Andre Jackson,Quymaine Haggray, |
| Albany |
AAA |
Daniel Covington,Rasahn Johnson,Sincere Allah, |
Class AA
Sectional brackets. Predictions for each tournament generated by the season long computer rankings and thoughts on each classification.
Full Bracket Projections
| Class AA Boys |
Winning |
Winning |
Winning |
Winning |
Computer |
| |
Rd 16 |
QT. Final |
Semi |
Champ |
Projection |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| Mekeel C.A. |
100.00% |
71.78% |
43.92% |
24.88% |
Contender |
| Niskayuna |
100.00% |
71.26% |
43.12% |
24.04% |
Contender |
| Bethlehem |
71.19% |
50.60% |
28.35% |
15.78% |
Contender |
| La Salle |
71.17% |
50.74% |
28.12% |
15.72% |
Contender |
| Queensbury |
50.02% |
17.53% |
6.13% |
2.13% |
Long Shot |
| Burnt Hills |
49.98% |
17.51% |
6.12% |
2.12% |
Long Shot |
| Averill Park |
50.31% |
17.57% |
6.03% |
2.10% |
Long Shot |
| South Glens Falls |
49.69% |
17.22% |
5.86% |
2.02% |
Long Shot |
| Amsterdam |
50.13% |
14.17% |
5.59% |
1.95% |
Long Shot |
| Columbia |
50.00% |
14.37% |
5.64% |
1.95% |
Long Shot |
| Ballston Spa |
50.00% |
14.37% |
5.64% |
1.95% |
Long Shot |
| Mohonasen |
49.87% |
14.05% |
5.52% |
1.92% |
Long Shot |
| Troy |
28.81% |
14.36% |
5.00% |
1.73% |
Long Shot |
| Guilderland |
28.83% |
14.46% |
4.96% |
1.73% |
Long Shot |
A few questions based on the numbers:
Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?
No. Four teams show as contenders based on current play and bracket draw. Mekeel Christian and Niskayuna are helped that they both have byes in the opening round. Bethlehem and La Salle rate just behind those the top two contenders and are every bit of equal teams and could beat the top two teams if they were to meet.
Is there a team seeded #4 or below that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?
Bethlehem at #4. The Eagles are led on offense by Cam LaClair and Kiernan Barnes and they defend well.
Additional thoughts:
Going to be some outstanding games in the opening round as four games loom as toss-ups. (Columbia/Ballston Spa, Queensbury/Burnt Hills, Amsterdam/Mohonasen and South Glens Falls/Averill Park.)
Click team name for season results. Players to watch in this classification are listed as top 150 scorers on the timesunion.com website.
| Mekeel C.A. |
AA |
Danny Bologna,Terrance Clark,Oryan DeJesus,Terrence Robinson |
| Niskayuna |
AA |
Daniel Smalls,Ethan Gilson,Gavin Olsen, |
| Bethlehem |
AA |
Cam LaClair,Kieran Barnes, |
| La Salle |
AA |
Davon Maloney,Emmanuel Karkari-Mensah,Tra'Dell Faison, |
| Queensbury |
AA |
Chase Baker,Kasigh Gooden, |
| Burnt Hills |
AA |
Ben Kline,John Klopfer, |
| Amsterdam |
AA |
Aundray Fowler,CJ Miller, |
| Columbia |
AA |
Evan Rainville,Zander Poissant, |
| Ballston Spa |
AA |
Michael Pritchard,Nico Savini, |
| Troy |
AA |
Legend Merritt,Stetson Merritt, |
| Guilderland |
AA |
Tyler Witazek, |
| Averill Park |
AA |
Ethan Nardacci, |
| Mohonasen |
AA |
Jordan Knight, |
| South Glens Falls |
AA |
Brady Smith,Ryan Fitzsimmons, |
Class A
Sectional brackets. Predictions for each tournament generated by the season long computer rankings and thoughts on each classification.
Full Bracket Projections
| Class A Boys |
Winning |
Winning |
Winning |
Winning |
Computer |
| |
Rd 16 |
QT. Final |
Semi |
Champ |
Projection |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| Catholic Cent. |
100.00% |
84.15% |
70.65% |
42.02% |
Favorite |
| Glens Falls |
100.00% |
84.12% |
63.57% |
38.12% |
Favorite |
| Lansingburgh |
100.00% |
66.84% |
23.22% |
9.25% |
Dark Horse |
| Gloversville |
100.00% |
50.20% |
10.81% |
2.67% |
Long Shot |
| Schalmont |
100.00% |
49.80% |
10.66% |
2.61% |
Long Shot |
| Cohoes |
50.15% |
7.97% |
3.97% |
0.97% |
Long Shot |
| Ravena |
49.85% |
7.88% |
3.91% |
0.95% |
Long Shot |
| Hudson Falls |
50.43% |
16.82% |
3.61% |
0.94% |
Long Shot |
| Broadalbin-Perth |
49.57% |
16.34% |
3.46% |
0.89% |
Long Shot |
| ICC |
50.31% |
8.03% |
3.12% |
0.81% |
Long Shot |
| Scotia |
49.69% |
7.84% |
3.03% |
0.78% |
Long Shot |
A few questions based on the numbers:
Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?
Yes. Catholic Central and Glens Falls. They are a combined 39-1 on the season with the only blemish being a Catholic Central loss to 20-0 Colonie. These two teams have an 80+% chance of winning the classification based on their overall play and draw. Would be shocking to see any other team but these two playing for the title.
Is there a team seeded #4 or below that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?
Not really. Lansingburgh #3 gave Catholic Central a game the first time but they would have to play above their current play to beat Glens Falls or Catholic Central.
Additional thoughts:
Like the AA classification the early round games are real toss-ups. (Cohoes/Ravena, Hudson Falls/Broadalbin Perth, and Ichabod Crane/Scotia)
Click team name for season results. Players to watch in this classification are listed as top 150 scorers on the timesunion.com website.
| Catholic Cent. |
A |
Darien Moore,Sei'Mir Roberson, |
| Glens Falls |
A |
Brody Holcomb,Cooper Nadler,Kellen Driscoll,Oscar Lilac, |
| Lansingburgh |
A |
Aayden Green,Damarion Tucker,Markus Green, |
| Gloversville |
A |
Jordan Collar,Rocco Insonia, |
| Hudson Falls |
A |
Brady Smith,Jayden Hardwick, |
| Schalmont |
A |
Isaiah Smith,Ryan Woodrow, |
| ICC |
A |
Jack Mullins,Quinn Rapport, |
| Cohoes |
A |
Marquay Tanksley, |
| Ravena |
A |
Jack Reif, |
| Scotia |
A |
Fermin Fabian, |
| Broadalbin-Perth |
A |
Brad Savoie,Landon Russom, |
Class B
Sectional brackets. Predictions for each tournament generated by the season long computer rankings and thoughts on each classification.
Full Bracket Projections
| Class B Boys |
Winning |
Winning |
Winning |
Winning |
Computer |
| |
Rd 16 |
QT. Final |
Semi |
Champ |
Projection |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| Stillwater |
73.41% |
48.66% |
33.44% |
22.70% |
Contender |
| Schuylerville |
58.36% |
31.32% |
16.16% |
7.48% |
Dark Horse |
| Hoosick Falls |
58.12% |
30.93% |
15.88% |
7.30% |
Dark Horse |
| Hudson |
58.27% |
29.09% |
15.43% |
7.10% |
Dark Horse |
| Fonda |
58.25% |
31.05% |
13.44% |
7.00% |
Dark Horse |
| Watervliet |
57.37% |
30.57% |
13.18% |
6.85% |
Dark Horse |
| Johnstown |
50.22% |
26.93% |
14.33% |
6.62% |
Dark Horse |
| Mechanicville |
49.78% |
26.59% |
14.09% |
6.48% |
Dark Horse |
| Greenville |
50.17% |
20.21% |
10.68% |
5.55% |
Dark Horse |
| Voorheesville |
49.83% |
20.00% |
10.54% |
5.45% |
Dark Horse |
| NDBG |
42.63% |
19.57% |
7.08% |
3.16% |
Long Shot |
| Tamarac |
41.64% |
18.86% |
8.16% |
3.12% |
Long Shot |
| Granville |
41.88% |
18.88% |
8.16% |
3.12% |
Long Shot |
| Rensselaer |
41.73% |
17.38% |
7.78% |
2.97% |
Long Shot |
| Corinth |
41.75% |
18.81% |
6.68% |
2.93% |
Long Shot |
| Taconic Hills |
26.59% |
11.13% |
4.97% |
2.17% |
Long Shot |
A few questions based on the numbers:
Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?
Yes. Stillwater. Their only loss is to Class A Lansingburgh. They were runner-ups last year and have an improved team this year. It would be an upset if they don't win it.
Is there a team seeded #4 or below that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?
#4 Watervliet, #5 Hoosick Falls, #6 Fonda, the winner of Johstown/Mechanicville could win multiple games to get to the Cool Insuring Arena semi-finals. Voorheesville/Greenville winner most likely plays #1 Stillwater.
Additional thoughts:
Nine teams are classified as "dark horses" based on the teams current rankings and bracket draw. Meaning we could see some great contests on the way to Glens Falls. Hudson has only two losses on the season and have a dangerous scorer in Keith Robinson. If the seeds hold up the Bluehawks would get a rematch with Mechanicville who gave them one of their two defeats.
Click team name for season results. Players to watch in this classification are listed as top 150 scorers on the timesunion.com website.
| Stillwater |
B |
Jaxon Mueller, Kaelan Leak,Luckas Lilac,Thomas McDonough |
| Schuylerville |
B |
Griffin Brophy,Luke Sherman, |
| Fonda |
B |
Brady Melious,Riley Wilson, |
| Johnstown |
B |
Ryan Hoyt, |
| Watervliet |
B |
Daheem Wilson,Matthew Wistuk, |
| Hudson |
B |
Jordan Cunningham,Keith Robinson, |
| Greenville |
B |
Jack Giarusso,Jonas Britton, |
| Mechanicville |
B |
Colin Richardson,Cruz Goverski, |
| Hoosick Falls |
B |
Andrew Sparks,Carson Glover, |
| Voorheesville |
B |
Brady Eitleman,Thomas Burns, |
| NDBG |
B |
Esiasyn Starr,Lincoln Baldwin, |
| Cobleskill |
B |
Cooper LaBarge, |
| Corinth |
B |
Avery Wood |
| Tamarac |
B |
Adam Rice,Kamerin Edmonds, |
| Granville |
B |
Liam Farrell, |
| Taconic Hills |
B |
Troy Super,Zach Rowe, |
| Rensselaer |
B |
Andrew Alvarado,Noah Vogel, |
| Catskill |
B |
Makhai Henry, |
| Coxsackie-Athens |
B |
Robert Hughes, |
| Cairo-Durham |
B |
Jake Young,Terrell Simmons, |
Class C
Sectional brackets. Predictions for each tournament generated by the season long computer rankings and thoughts on each classification.
Full Bracket Projections
| Class C Boys |
Winning |
Winning |
Winning |
Winning |
Computer |
| |
Rd 16 |
QT. Final |
Semi |
Champ |
Projection |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| Hoosic Valley |
78.02% |
49.72% |
27.54% |
15.24% |
Contender |
| Duanesburg |
58.63% |
37.64% |
21.41% |
11.89% |
Contender |
| Berne-Knox |
58.20% |
37.15% |
20.96% |
11.58% |
Contender |
| Maple Hill |
58.20% |
33.92% |
19.42% |
10.76% |
Contender |
| Warrensburg |
71.47% |
34.63% |
16.38% |
7.76% |
Dark Horse |
| Saratoga Catholic |
71.40% |
32.31% |
15.63% |
7.37% |
Dark Horse |
| Lake George |
71.29% |
32.08% |
15.53% |
7.30% |
Dark Horse |
| Waterford/Greenwich |
41.80% |
23.45% |
11.34% |
5.34% |
Dark Horse |
| Germantown/Hadley Luzerne |
41.37% |
23.19% |
11.21% |
5.27% |
Dark Horse |
| Chatham |
50.02% |
22.59% |
11.12% |
5.25% |
Dark Horse |
| Whitehall |
49.98% |
22.56% |
11.10% |
5.24% |
Dark Horse |
| Canajoharie/Cambridge |
41.80% |
20.93% |
10.32% |
4.88% |
Long Shot |
| Mayfield/Salem |
28.53% |
8.05% |
2.12% |
0.56% |
Long Shot |
| Fort Plain/OESJ |
21.98% |
7.60% |
2.00% |
0.53% |
Long Shot |
| Schoharie |
28.71% |
7.09% |
1.96% |
0.52% |
Long Shot |
| Middleburgh |
28.60% |
7.09% |
1.96% |
0.52% |
Long Shot |
A few questions based on the numbers:
Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?
No. The top four seeds (Maple Hill, Duanesburg, Berne Knox and Hoosic Valley) show up as contenders when running the bracket numbers. From top to bottom there is a lot of parity in this class.
Is there a team seeded #4 or below that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?
Hoosic Valley, Warrensburg, Saratoga Catholic, Chatham, Whitehall could win multiple games and get to Glens Falls.
Additional thoughts:
Tough class to predict from watching the teams and what the numbers suggest. I think Duanesburg has the best player in Jeff Mulhern. Hoosic Valley plays in the toughest league. Berne Knox has steadily improved all season, exactly what you'd like to do at this point. The Bulldogs just knocked off WAC tournament champ Fonda a few games back. Maple Hill has beaten Duanesburg, and Class B Hudson so they can play with anyone. They defend well and play team basketball as good as any team in any classification. Plus they have Brady Cole who can get you 20+ if needed.
Click team name for season results. Players to watch in this classification are listed as top 150 scorers on the timesunion.com website.
| Duanesburg |
C |
Ethan Thompson,Jeffrey Mulhern, |
| Berne-Knox |
C |
AJ Wright,Blake Shaver,Dayne Coates,Shane Kirker, |
| Maple Hill |
C |
Brady Cole,Nick Novak, |
| Hoosic Valley |
C |
Chris Jones,Gabe Coffin,Isaac Wiley, |
| Warrensburg |
C |
Brady Cheney,Evan LaPell,Steve Schloss, |
| Saratoga Catholic |
C |
Tyler Hicks, |
| Waterford |
C |
Derrick Pontore, |
| Greenwich |
C |
Cal Curtis,Ryan Ingber, |
| Cambridge |
C |
L. MacDougal,Travis Yurschik, |
| Lake George |
C |
Angelo Bergman,Jack Welch, |
| Chatham |
C |
Jacob Taylor,Lennie Sitzer,Tate VanAlstyne |
| Hadley-Luzerne |
C |
|
| Whitehall |
C |
|
| Germantown |
C |
Mason Ferrer, |
| Schoharie |
C |
Matt Bernhardt,Preston DiGiovanni, |
| Canajoharie |
C |
Antonio Fairley, |
| Middleburgh |
C |
Eric Pickering,Guillermo Martinez, |
| Mayfield |
C |
Brody Page,Sean Foreman, |
| OESJ |
C |
Colin Eakin, |
| Galway |
C |
|
| Fort Plain |
C |
Dylan Keane, |
| Berlin-New Lebanon |
C |
Christopher Shorter,Jesse Francoeur, |
| Salem |
C |
Josh Harrington, |
Class D
Sectional brackets. Predictions for each tournament generated by the season long computer rankings and thoughts on each classification.
Full Bracket Projections
| Class D Boys |
Winning |
Winning |
Winning |
Computer |
| |
QT. Final |
Semi |
Champ |
Projection |
| |
|
|
|
|
| North Warren |
88.26% |
49.73% |
24.89% |
Contender |
| Fort Edward |
71.24% |
38.65% |
19.25% |
Contender |
| Argyle |
50.06% |
25.10% |
13.29% |
Contender |
| Loudonville Christian |
50.10% |
25.02% |
13.22% |
Contender |
| Hawthorne Valley |
49.94% |
25.01% |
13.22% |
Contender |
| Hartford |
49.90% |
24.87% |
13.12% |
Contender |
| Northville |
28.76% |
9.72% |
2.78% |
Long Shot |
| Fort Ann |
11.74% |
1.89% |
0.22% |
Long Shot |
A few questions based on the numbers:
Are there any clear cut teams that are the favorite to win the title?
No. As wide open a class as you'll see. Six of eight teams deemed contenders by the numbers.
Is there a team seeded #4 or below that could that could win a couple games, reach the final or win the classification?
Fort Edward, Hawthorne Valley and Hartford.
Additional thoughts:
North Warren looms as the team to beat even though the numbers suggest it's wide open. They are looking for a repeat of last year when they were crowned champs. Derrick Tyrell and Semaj Cuyler lead the Cougars.
Click team name for season results. Players to watch in this classification are listed as top 150 scorers on the timesunion.com website.
| Argyle |
D |
Brandon Saunders,Dru Austin, |
| North Warren |
D |
Derrick Tyrell,Semaj Cuyler, |
| Hawthorne Valley |
D |
Noah Vom Stein,Oliver Towe, |
| Loudonville Christian |
D |
Jared Pratt,Mike Marshall, |
| Hartford |
D |
|
| Fort Edward |
D |
Zach Bartholomew, |
| Northville |
D |
|
| Doane Stuart |
D |
|
| Fort Ann |
D |
Javier Hernandez, |
